College Football Monday

Five thoughts on College Football to start your Monday off…

1.  One Burning Question:   Does Va. Tech’s loss kill Boise’s chances of making the BCS title game?

Yes & no.  Picture this: an undefeated SEC team, an undefeated Big 10 team, and an undefeated Boise St. all waltz in December.  Guess what, one of these teams has absolutely no shot at playing for a national title.  Hope you Boise fans didn’t book hotel reservations for Tempe during the second week of January, because you won’t need ‘em.  If you play in a less than stellar conference (and yes I’m talking to teams in the Big East, ACC, WAC & Mountain West)  you can’t expect me to be as impressed with your going undefeated as with a team from the SEC, Big 10, or even the Big 12 or Pac-10 going undefeated.

Having said all this I do think the opening couple weeks of the season call for some suspension of judgment.  Hey, I would love to jump into all the debates that are raging right now about Boise St., VT, strength of schedule, the horror of the BCS and all the rest, but the fact is we just don’t know enough yet to make any sort of judgment about how good many of these teams really are.  The best test of how good a college football team is remains whether or not they can run the table from August to December.  Do that and at the very least you’re good…maybe even great.  Sadly for Boise, strength of schedule does matter and so if they have any chance of being in the national title game they need to be the only team in college football who is undefeated at the end of the year.  And from here on out style points are going to count big time.

At the end of the day though, this is hardly a different situation than the one facing Boise at the start of the season.  Yes, the loss hurts public perception in the short term, but Boise was always going to have to run the table in impressive style and probably be the only undefeated left on the board to even have a greater than 50% chance of playing for the title.

2.  If you want my advice… Steve Spurrier, if you are ever going to beat Florida and win the SEC East at South Carolina do it now…but don’t count on it.  South Carolina is good. How good you ask?  Well that is still to be determined.  But with Lamarcus Lattimore, Steven Garcia, some athletic skill players and a reputable defense I feel comfortable right now saying that S.C. could win 5 conference games which would be impressive.  Oh, and did I mention that Florida looks less than impressive at the moment.  This, however, is where the good news ends for Spurrier and the Gamecocks because they have some huge disadvantages chief among them is their schedule.  S.C. has to play Auburn, Bama & Arkansas from the SEC West.  The bad news, is that the most winnable game (Auburn) is an away game, meaning they could easily go 0-3 against the West division.  This will put a lot of pressure on them to take care of business against some very mediocre SEC East teams (Tenn, UK, & Vandy).  Assuming they win all three of those games S.C.’s chances of winning the SEC East will likely come down to their head-to-head against Florida and that game isn’t going to take place until Nov 13^th…in the Swamp, which means John Brantley should have had time to figure out how to run an offense for four quarters.  At least South Carolina fans can take comfort in being the best S.C. team in college football for a year…

3. Battleship hit and sunk…The ACC has now lost all credibility to me.  Your three big name teams just got humiliated, and Georgia Tech got beat by a Kansas team who lost last week to North Dakota State.   Florida St. was supposed to be returning to prominence.  Instead they served as Oklahoma’s punching bag as the Sooners worked out their frustrations from last week’s embarrassing win over Utah St. on the poor Seminoles who had to slink back to Tallahassee.  The good news for the ‘Noles is that they weren’t the only Florida team slinking back to the Sunshine State on Sunday.   The Miami Hurricanes attempted to make landfall in Ohio but by the time they got there could hardly be called a tropical depression.  OSU flexed it muscles and solidified their spot as the best team in the Big 10 and the second best team in the country by dismantling a Miami of FL. team that was searching for validation and respect.  But of course the biggest loss for the ACC has come courtesy of Virginia Tech, who last week managed to lose to Boise St. (WAC champion > ACC champion…no the equation you want as a BCS conference) but then managed to lose to an FCS school, James Madison.  This is one of the worst openings to a Top 10 season I’ve seen in a while.  It may rank up there with that year everyone thought Georgia was going to win the national championship, and it certainly surpasses OU’s massively disappointing opening from last year.

4. One of these is not like the other…One of those top 10 teams is a faker and for now I’m going with the obvious choice of Florida.  Sure they’re probably still the best team in Florida (and yes that used to mean something) but it doesn’t mean much right now.  Florida isn’t so much a bad team as they are a team that seems to have no identity and struggles to really do anything consistent other than be mediocre on offense for most of a game.  Thankfully Florida still has some time to figure things out and put together a good season but that needs to happen soon or Florida will jump into contention for the most disappointing team of the year along with Virginia Tech.  An ignominious race if ever there was one…

5.  Five things to look forward to…Because the start of the work week demands some ray of hope to fuel long hours of darkness here are five things you can look forward to next Saturday.

Texas at Texas Tech/Florida at Tennessee. These are basically the same game.  Both Texas and Florida have had lackluster performances against overmatched foes the first couple weeks.  Now they both go on the road to visit divisional foes who would love to exploit some apparent weaknesses in both teams.  It will be the first true road test for both Gilbert and Brantley and it will be interesting to see how both perform.  Gilbert has looked solid, although not spectacular so far.  The Longhorns will almost undoubtedly need more out of him in this game.  For Florida, Brantley will need to be patient and trust his defense.  As little firepower as Florida has shown in the first two games, Tennessee has less…a lot less.  Some opportunistic offense should work wonders and a win for Florida.

Big 10 vs. Pac 10 matchups – Iowa visits Arizona as the second best team in both conferences face off against each other.  Also on the docket, Arizona St. visits Madison and U.S.C. (the other one) goes to Minnesota.  I’m interested to see if Minnesota can pull a Kansas and lose to a Dakota school one week and then knock off a top-20 team the next.

Denard Robinson attempting to singlehandedly gain 1,000 yards against UMass – Seriously…this is getting ridiculous.  I expected a letdown against Notre Dame and all he did was gain over 500 yards…by himself.  That’s just dumb.  Add to that the fact that Michigan is basically playing the role of embarrassed bully right now and poor UMass is going to be in for a long day.

Notre Dame at Michigan State – Say what you want to about Notre Dame football it generates excitement.  Actually, this makes me think that Notre Dame is basically the institutional incarnation of the BCS, an entity that is simultaneously overrated and underrated, absurdly lucrative, and sometimes outrageously fun to watch.   You can be sure that Sparty is going to try his hardest to give Brian Kelly and the Irish a losing record, let’s face it, straight up who are you going to pick against?  A Brian Kelly team that just lost a close game they feel they should have won or a Mark Dantonio team?

Being one week closer to Texas/OU weekend…

Colts & Ravens Prediction

The Colts dismantled one AFC superpower from last decade a week ago.  Now can they handle the Colts?  I’m saying no and sticking with the quiet and unassuming Colts in this game.  Here are a few things to watch for.

1.  The Ravens run game vs. the Colts defense.  The Ravens will have to run the ball well to give them a chance to win.  If the Ravens running backs start reeling off 5-10 yard gains, then the Colts defense may have to pull the safeties up and give Joe Flacco a chance at some easier passes down field.

2.  The Colts receivers vs. the Ravens secondary.  The Colts receivers must get consistently get open.  Baltimore’s line will probably get to Manning a few times in this game so he’ll need his receivers to get open and do so quickly from time to time.

3.  Joe Flacco vs. Peyton Manning.  These teams require very different things from their quarterbacks.  Indianapolis rests on the shoulders of Peyton Manning, and as far as I’m concerned there is no better quarterback in the NFL.  Manning has the unenviable task of not only avoiding mistakes but also making the plays to keep his team moving.  Flacco on the other hand is in a bit of an easier spot.  The Ravens defense should be able to keep them in the game but he must avoid mistakes.

4.  Game plan.  I’m curious to see how Baltimore comes out.  My expectation is that they will try to win with aggressive defense and a punishing running attack.  If the Colts can slow down the running attack and force Flacco into some 3rd and longs it could spell trouble for the Ravens.  Baltimore cannot afford to play from behind in this game.  On the other hand, Indianapolis on the other hand could conceivably mount a comeback were the game to take a bad bounce in the early going.  My assumption is that Indianapolis will play with a sort of measured risk early in the game attempting to open up the field.

5.  Field Position.  Baltimore must generate a few first downs on every drive just to force the Colts to drive the field.  If the Colts can get short fields and easy points the Ravens will get run out of town.  The team that controls field position could slowly pull away in this game.

6.  Red Zone production.  The Ravens must put the ball in the end zone.  Whichever team can convert red zone trips into TD’s should win this game.  This is where Manning should prove to be the difference.

Pick: Colts 23, Ravens 20.

Saints & Cardinals Look for Offensive Fireworks

Defense wins championships, or so we’ve been told.  So what do you do with the Arizona Cardinals, the defending NFC champions who just gave up 45 points?  Well I’ll tell you what I’m doing…picking them to lose, and here are a few good reasons why, along with some other observations on the game.

1.  The Saints should be healthy and rested.  Yeah, yeah, I know the Saints have lost three in a row entering the postseason.  And yes, I have heard the whole, “You can’t just flip a switch” argument.  In fact, I said the same thing about the Cardinals after they were thrashed by Green Bay in week 17.  Brees and co. have had all week to look at Green Bays game plan and find the holes in the Cardinals defense.

2.  The TE factor.  I can’t stand Jeremy Shockey.  I was disgusted by him when he played at Miami (Fl.) and was furious when he ended up in NY.  Add to that his ridiculous long hair (he Hawk & Carpenter should all start some convention) and I vomit in my mouth a little every time he catches a pass.  But I have to admit he’s a heck of a TE and in a passing attack a TE like Shockey can wreak havoc on a defense.  If Shockey plays well in this game it could be a long day for the Arizona defense.

3.  The Dome effect.  New Orleans is going to be rocking.  Granted Kurt Warner is no stranger to domes or big play off games and it isn’t like this Cardinals team doesn’t know how to win games.  However, I still expect a false start or two from the offensive line and those little mistakes can kill drives or force FG’s from red zone trips.

4.  The response of Arizona’s defense.  I want to be bold and say that Arizona’s defense will respond with a gritty and tough performance this weekend.  And I think they’ll play better than some expect.  But I don’t see it being enough to stop Brees and co.

5.  QB’s, QB’s, QB’s…the quarterback matchup in this game is extraordinary.  The new(ish) kid in Drew Brees still trying to prove himself versus the experienced veteran who after resurrecting his career is leaing his last campaign. And that leads me to my next thought…

6.  Safeties, safeties, safeties.  This game will come down to which teams secondary (and really the safeties) come up big.  Warner and Brees are both too good to beat themselves.  However, if the safeties can keep things in front and force long drives, rather than big plays they’ll at least slow these offenses down.  However, if the safeties start biting on play action or can’t provide help over the top to the corners this game could get out of hand for one team.

7.  Running the ball in the red zone.  This is probably why I don’t like either of these teams to win it all this year.  While the quarterbacks are great, the running game is lacking.  It’s not for a lack of talent in the backfield, it just seems that neither team is really able to blow teams off the line and establish the run.  Whoever runs the ball in the red zone could come away with the victory.

8.  Fatigue.  If the Saints are rested and supposedly healthy, the Cardinals may be limping a bit.  They’re playing only six days after that long and emotional battle against the Packers, so it will be interesting to see how they come out.  Arizona may want to lean more heavily on its run game but to do so they cannot afford to get behind early.

9.  Anquan Boldin.  He didn’t even play last weekend and the Cardinals still managed to put up 51 points.  While this may seem like a problem, I don’t expect it to have a big effect.  Fitzgerald, Doucet and Breaston all played great last week and Kurt Warner played maybe the best postseason game of his life.  The difficulty is I don’t see them doing that again this week.

10.  Drew Brees.  The guy is ridiculous.  His work ethic is well chronicled and now after some stupid comments by the Cardinals he’s ticked off and playing with a chip on his shoulder.  Add to that his ability to distribute the ball and New Orleans should be able to score just enough points to stay in front of Kurt Warner and his fleet of receivers.

Pick: New Orleans 34, Arizona 30.

Edit:  Boldin has been ruled out for today’s game, which shouldn’t be that big a factor considering last week’s performance.  Still doing it two weeks in a row without one of your big receivers will be difficult.  I’m feeling more confident in my pick.

Appaloosa

Grit and a tough as nails approach to life were the things which were most impressive about John Wayne.  Appaloosa is a Western that recaptures some of that true grit.  The story revolves around two independent lawmen, who work for hire and their adventures in a small New Mexico town in the 1880′s.  Ed Harris and Viggo Mortenson are great as the lead actors.  Renee Zellwegger is adequate as the leading lady, but the interaction between her and Harris seems forced.  Ed Harris’ character never develops up to potential and settles for a rather static role.  It is not so much that Mr. Harris does a poor job, it is more that he does a variation on the same persona we’ve seen in almost every other Ed Harris movie. Viggo Mortenson meanwhile delivers a strong performance as Harris deputy.   The movie is paced well and and the directing job done by Harris is good.

Rated: R (Violence & Language) – The violence in the film is intense and personal.

Worldview & Values:  The redeeming qualities of the film however, are that loyalty and friendship are valued.  The movie also raises the question, where is the line between justice and vengeance?

Grade: B

52

Alright, this year I decided to try a New Years resolution that was all fun and games.  The goal was simple.  Read one new book and watch one movie, preferably a movie that is new to me, each week.  So now that the year is almost a third gone and I’m still on track to keep this resolution it’s time to start up this blog one more time.