The Colts dismantled one AFC superpower from last decade a week ago. Now can they handle the Colts? I’m saying no and sticking with the quiet and unassuming Colts in this game. Here are a few things to watch for.
1. The Ravens run game vs. the Colts defense. The Ravens will have to run the ball well to give them a chance to win. If the Ravens running backs start reeling off 5-10 yard gains, then the Colts defense may have to pull the safeties up and give Joe Flacco a chance at some easier passes down field.
2. The Colts receivers vs. the Ravens secondary. The Colts receivers must get consistently get open. Baltimore’s line will probably get to Manning a few times in this game so he’ll need his receivers to get open and do so quickly from time to time.
3. Joe Flacco vs. Peyton Manning. These teams require very different things from their quarterbacks. Indianapolis rests on the shoulders of Peyton Manning, and as far as I’m concerned there is no better quarterback in the NFL. Manning has the unenviable task of not only avoiding mistakes but also making the plays to keep his team moving. Flacco on the other hand is in a bit of an easier spot. The Ravens defense should be able to keep them in the game but he must avoid mistakes.
4. Game plan. I’m curious to see how Baltimore comes out. My expectation is that they will try to win with aggressive defense and a punishing running attack. If the Colts can slow down the running attack and force Flacco into some 3rd and longs it could spell trouble for the Ravens. Baltimore cannot afford to play from behind in this game. On the other hand, Indianapolis on the other hand could conceivably mount a comeback were the game to take a bad bounce in the early going. My assumption is that Indianapolis will play with a sort of measured risk early in the game attempting to open up the field.
5. Field Position. Baltimore must generate a few first downs on every drive just to force the Colts to drive the field. If the Colts can get short fields and easy points the Ravens will get run out of town. The team that controls field position could slowly pull away in this game.
6. Red Zone production. The Ravens must put the ball in the end zone. Whichever team can convert red zone trips into TD’s should win this game. This is where Manning should prove to be the difference.
Pick: Colts 23, Ravens 20.
