Defense wins championships, or so we’ve been told. So what do you do with the Arizona Cardinals, the defending NFC champions who just gave up 45 points? Well I’ll tell you what I’m doing…picking them to lose, and here are a few good reasons why, along with some other observations on the game.
1. The Saints should be healthy and rested. Yeah, yeah, I know the Saints have lost three in a row entering the postseason. And yes, I have heard the whole, “You can’t just flip a switch” argument. In fact, I said the same thing about the Cardinals after they were thrashed by Green Bay in week 17. Brees and co. have had all week to look at Green Bays game plan and find the holes in the Cardinals defense.
2. The TE factor. I can’t stand Jeremy Shockey. I was disgusted by him when he played at Miami (Fl.) and was furious when he ended up in NY. Add to that his ridiculous long hair (he Hawk & Carpenter should all start some convention) and I vomit in my mouth a little every time he catches a pass. But I have to admit he’s a heck of a TE and in a passing attack a TE like Shockey can wreak havoc on a defense. If Shockey plays well in this game it could be a long day for the Arizona defense.
3. The Dome effect. New Orleans is going to be rocking. Granted Kurt Warner is no stranger to domes or big play off games and it isn’t like this Cardinals team doesn’t know how to win games. However, I still expect a false start or two from the offensive line and those little mistakes can kill drives or force FG’s from red zone trips.
4. The response of Arizona’s defense. I want to be bold and say that Arizona’s defense will respond with a gritty and tough performance this weekend. And I think they’ll play better than some expect. But I don’t see it being enough to stop Brees and co.
5. QB’s, QB’s, QB’s…the quarterback matchup in this game is extraordinary. The new(ish) kid in Drew Brees still trying to prove himself versus the experienced veteran who after resurrecting his career is leaing his last campaign. And that leads me to my next thought…
6. Safeties, safeties, safeties. This game will come down to which teams secondary (and really the safeties) come up big. Warner and Brees are both too good to beat themselves. However, if the safeties can keep things in front and force long drives, rather than big plays they’ll at least slow these offenses down. However, if the safeties start biting on play action or can’t provide help over the top to the corners this game could get out of hand for one team.
7. Running the ball in the red zone. This is probably why I don’t like either of these teams to win it all this year. While the quarterbacks are great, the running game is lacking. It’s not for a lack of talent in the backfield, it just seems that neither team is really able to blow teams off the line and establish the run. Whoever runs the ball in the red zone could come away with the victory.
8. Fatigue. If the Saints are rested and supposedly healthy, the Cardinals may be limping a bit. They’re playing only six days after that long and emotional battle against the Packers, so it will be interesting to see how they come out. Arizona may want to lean more heavily on its run game but to do so they cannot afford to get behind early.
9. Anquan Boldin. He didn’t even play last weekend and the Cardinals still managed to put up 51 points. While this may seem like a problem, I don’t expect it to have a big effect. Fitzgerald, Doucet and Breaston all played great last week and Kurt Warner played maybe the best postseason game of his life. The difficulty is I don’t see them doing that again this week.
10. Drew Brees. The guy is ridiculous. His work ethic is well chronicled and now after some stupid comments by the Cardinals he’s ticked off and playing with a chip on his shoulder. Add to that his ability to distribute the ball and New Orleans should be able to score just enough points to stay in front of Kurt Warner and his fleet of receivers.
Pick: New Orleans 34, Arizona 30.
Edit: Boldin has been ruled out for today’s game, which shouldn’t be that big a factor considering last week’s performance. Still doing it two weeks in a row without one of your big receivers will be difficult. I’m feeling more confident in my pick.
